Mitigating Climate Risks: The Crucial Role of Nuclear Power

CONTEXT

In April 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presented its ‘Nuclear Energy for Net Zero Report’[1]. The report focuses on mobilising investment in the development of nuclear power, with a target of $100 billion per year in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, available peer-reviewed analysis indicates that an overshoot of the 1.5°C is likely to occur. To put it simply, we currently emit more than 30 GtCO₂ y-1, and in 2030 we need to limit [2] emissions to 25–30 GtCO₂ y-1 for a limited overshoot of the 1.5°C target.

Given the nature of overshoot and its potential to cause damage, there is a need to understand the climate mitigation potential which nuclear power generation offers. At the moment, nuclear power is promoted as a passive low-carbon option. That thinking needs a step change. Life cycle harmonisation studies [3,4] on electricity generation platforms shows nuclear is clearly low-carbon and has the potential to offer climate mitigation.

CLIMATE MITIGATION

Nuclear power at the point of generation makes an additional contribution to the overall strategic management of climate risk. The key study to develop a basic understanding of this can be found [3] in ‘Carbon Neutrality in the UNECE Region: Technology Interplay under the Carbon Neutrality Concept’. From a strategic perspective there is a need to examine the relationship between nuclear fuel manufacture, electricity generation, waste disposability, and ecosystem services. With the climate change impacts predicted as a result of the current global warming trajectory scenarios, there is a need for a critical analysis of how nuclear power generation contributes to climate mitigation and ecosystem adaptability.

To understand the above context, the UK can be used as an example:

• From 2009 up to 2021, the UK's grid emission factor decreased from 0.53 to 0.20 kg CO₂e/kWh as a result of inputs to the grid from nuclear and renewables sources (eg wind power).
• In terms of energy demand and consumption, this means the UK’s nuclear power generation contributes directly to the abatement of Scope 1, 2, and 3 GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions for UK businesses. The counter-energy demand and consumption scenarios are likely to involve fuel combustion from natural gas, biomass pellets, and petroleum liquids.
• Nuclear underpins a low-carbon future and creates market conditions for grid decarbonisation.
• In addition to grid decarbonisation within the UK, nuclear is contributing to the electrification of road transport. UK road transport is current dependent largely on the combustion of gasoline and diesel fuels.
• For climate mitigation and adaptation, UK nuclear generation offers a more sustainable option than relying on bioenergy with carbon capture and gas-fired generation with carbon capture. Relying on unproven technologies is significantly detrimental to long-term economic future.
• There is evidence that nuclear power generation provides ecosystem services through the protection of biodiversity and avoidance of pollution of rivers and enhances natural carbon sinks through land use management.

The IAEA's ‘Nuclear Energy for Net Zero Report’ underscores the critical role of nuclear power in mitigating climate change and reducing global warming. Nuclear energy presents a viable solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable energy practices. The UK serves as a compelling example, demonstrating significant reductions in grid emission factors and contributions to a low-carbon future through nuclear power.

To effectively combat climate change, it is essential to advance nuclear power as an integral part of the UK's energy strategy. We must move beyond viewing it as a passive option and actively invest in its development. By doing so, we can enhance grid decarbonisation, support the electrification of transportation, and provide essential ecosystem services.

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Bibliography

Nuclear Energy for Net Zero. Accelerating Investment in Clean Energy Transitions (iaea.org)

Global Warming of 1.5 C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc.ch)

Carbon Neutrality in the UNECE Region: Technology Interplay under Carbon Neutrality Concept (unece.org)

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Generation: Update (nrel.gov)

Written by Arshad Bhat PhD, Senior Lead Consultant

Edited by Megan Davies MSc, Senior Consultant